Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
